NRS: Nigeria’s Economy Finally Showing Signs of Recovery
By Victor Idajil
Nigeria’s economy appears to be stabilizing after years of strain, according to a new internal report by the Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS.
For the first time in over a decade, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has declined. It dropped from 38% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2025, and further to 32.3% in 2026.
That happened even as total public debt crossed N159 trillion. The NRS said the improvement means the economy is growing faster than debt, so borrowing now makes up a smaller portion of national output.
The agency credited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda for the turnaround, describing the measures as “painful but necessary.”
It noted that the administration inherited four major problems in 2023: an unaffordable fuel subsidy, an opaque foreign exchange market, weak oil production, and a tax system that was underperforming.
Because of the reforms, debt servicing is also becoming lighter. The portion of government revenue used to pay debt fell from 68% to a projected 53%, according to IMF data cited in the report.
External reserves have jumped more than 12 times to $51.9 billion as of July 2026 — the highest level in 17 years. In 2023, reserves were just $3.99 billion.
The country’s balance of payments also improved, moving from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Investor confidence is picking up too. Capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025. In Q1 2026 alone, $10.37 billion entered the country, with foreign portfolio flows leading the way.
The stock market is reflecting that optimism. Market capitalization on the Nigerian Exchange surged from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. The NRS linked the rally to bank recapitalization and more participation by local institutions.
Tax collection more than doubled, from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026. The NRS attributed this to digital tax systems, four new tax laws, restructuring of the revenue agency, and an executive order that blocked evasion loopholes.
Oil output also recovered, climbing from 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million bpd by July 2026. That is 104% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
For the first time in decades, Nigeria is now a net exporter of refined petroleum products. The naira-for-crude arrangement with the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries helped drive the shift. Exports of refined products rose 51% year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in Q1 2026.
The CNG program is also scaling up. From almost nothing three years ago, over 100,000 vehicles have been converted to run on gas. The sector has attracted over $2 billion in investment and created more than 10,000 jobs. The NRS said CNG is 40–60% cheaper than petrol, with some commercial drivers seeing monthly fuel costs drop from about N50,000 to N18,000.
Nigeria’s trade surplus grew sharply, from N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in Q1 2026.
To address food inflation, the government declared a state of emergency in July 2023, released strategic grain reserves, set up a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, distributed fertilizer, and invested in mechanization. Agriculture’s budget allocation also rose from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in 2025.
Citing the Ministry of Agriculture, the NRS said food prices fell by roughly 50% by March 2026. It cautioned, however, that full agricultural results will take several planting seasons.
On the social side, the national minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026. UNICEF data also showed the number of out-of-school children dropped from 20 million to 18.3 million.
The NRS concluded that Nigeria has “moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”
