Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.89% in Q1 2026, NBS Reports.

By Victor Idajili

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89% in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.  

The figure marks an improvement over the 3.13% growth recorded in the same period of 2025, reflecting stronger performance across key sectors, particularly agriculture and non-oil activities.  

Agriculture recorded one of the most significant rebounds, growing by 3.15% compared to just 0.07% in Q1 2025. The industry sector also improved, expanding by 3.50% from 3.42% a year earlier.  

The services sector grew by 4.31% in Q1 2026, slightly lower than the 4.33% recorded in the same quarter of 2025. Despite the marginal decline, it remained the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 57.73% of output compared to 57.50% a year earlier.  

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices stood at N110.79tn for the quarter, up from N94.05tn in Q1 2025. That represents a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.79%.  

Crude oil production dipped to an average of 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, lower than the 1.62 million bpd recorded in Q1 2025 and slightly below the 1.58 million bpd in Q4 2025. Even with the drop in volume, the oil sector posted real growth of 2.57% year-on-year, an improvement on the 1.87% recorded in the same period of 2025.  

However, this was a slowdown of 4.22 percentage points compared to the 6.79% growth seen in Q4 2025. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector grew by 9.31% in Q1 2026. It contributed 3.92% to real GDP, slightly lower than the 3.97% in Q1 2025 but higher than the 2.87% in the previous quarter.  

The non-oil sector continued to drive overall growth, expanding by 3.94% in real terms. This was higher than the 3.19% recorded in Q1 2025, though marginally lower than the 3.99% in Q4 2025. Growth was driven mainly by ICT, particularly telecommunications, alongside agriculture, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction, and transportation and storage, especially road transport.  

The non-oil sector accounted for 96.08% of GDP in real terms during the quarter, slightly higher than the 96.03% in Q1 2025 but lower than the 97.13% in Q4 2025.  

Within mining and quarrying, crude petroleum and natural gas remained dominant, making up 91.08% of the sector’s contribution in Q1 2026. The sector recorded nominal growth of 13.92% year-on-year, with crude oil activity leading at 16.37%, followed by quarrying and other minerals at 14.55%.  

Compared to Q1 2025 and Q4 2025, the sector’s nominal growth rose by 19.25 and 41.95 percentage points respectively. Overall, mining and quarrying contributed 4.23% to GDP in Q1 2026, lower than the 4.38% in Q1 2025 but higher than the 2.15% in the preceding quarter.  

In real terms, the sector grew by 1.89% year-on-year, a decline of 1.08 percentage points from Q1 2025 and 7.01 percentage points from Q4 2025. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, it grew 4.79% in Q1 2026. Its contribution to real GDP stood at 4.14%, lower than the 4.22% in Q1 2025 but higher than the 3.16% in Q4 2025.