FG to Conduct Nationwide Count, Says Nigeria’s Out-of-School Children May Be 7m Not 15m

By Victor Idajili

The Federal Government is set to carry out a nationwide household survey to determine the real number and locations of out-of-school children in Nigeria, with the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, saying the widely cited figure of 15 million to 17.5 million is likely inflated.

Alausa disclosed this during an interview on the Afropolitan Podcast. He said the ministry is finalising a Memorandum of Understanding with the National Bureau of Statistics to conduct the exercise across the 36 states and the FCT. The survey is expected to last about eight months.

According to him, preliminary data available to the ministry suggests the actual number is between 7 million and 8 million. 

“We do not have 15 million out-of-school children, and we’re going to prove it. Our out-of-school population, by the time we complete a full count, will be about 7 million to 8 million,” Alausa said.  
“Even at that, it’s still too many. We want the international community to know that we don’t have that number. UNESCO should not be giving us that data. UNICEF should not be giving us that data. We should be telling the world our own data, very good data that is verifiable.”

The minister said current estimates are largely based on population projections because Nigeria has not had a national census in decades. He argued that projections are unreliable for education planning. 

He described a grid-based General Household Survey as the closest alternative to a census for getting accurate numbers. The survey, he said, will not just give a national total but will also pinpoint the exact households where out-of-school children live.

Alausa cited examples from states that have already done similar counts. In Kaduna, the estimated number was 585,000 before a household survey, but dropped to about 190,000 after. Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto also recorded big differences between projected figures and actual counts.

The minister also said the government is working with the National Assembly to pass a bill that will allow polytechnics to award Bachelor of Technology degrees in engineering and science courses. 

The bill had been expected to go to President Bola Tinubu for assent but was returned to the National Assembly for amendments. Alausa expressed optimism it will be passed before the end of the year.

He said the reform is aimed at restoring parity between universities, polytechnics and colleges of education, and making tertiary education more skills-driven. The government, he noted, has resisted converting polytechnics to universities because it reinforces the idea that they are inferior.

He pointed to the dual-mandate policy for colleges of education as a model. Under that policy, students can move from NCE to a http://B.Ed in the same institution, which has boosted enrolment and reduced pressure for conversion.

Alausa lamented that technical education has been wrongly viewed as an option for “weak” students, leading to a shortage of skilled artisans. He said this is now evident in the construction sector, where Nigeria depends on foreign artisans for specialized jobs.

  
On universities, the minister said restoring stable academic calendars has helped rebuild confidence in public institutions. He said more students are returning to federal universities, citing the University of Lagos as an example.

He also noted improvement in global rankings. In the 2026 Times Higher Education ranking, 24 Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 to 1,200, up from 21. Seventeen of those are public universities.

In the health sector, Alausa said about N120 billion was invested in 2025 to upgrade 18 medical schools, and another N52 billion is being spent in 2026 on nearly 25 schools. Annual admission into medical schools has risen from about 5,000 to 12,000, with a target of 20,000 in two years. He added that over 140,000 nurses are now being trained annually.

The government is also investing about N110 billion to rehabilitate engineering faculties, workshops and equipment in universities, universities of technology and polytechnics. Another N250 billion is going into new student hostels across tertiary institutions.